Why this research was published
This project began from a concern that continent-wide summaries can hide important differences between countries, while model warnings can be mistaken for confirmed events. The research was therefore designed to show what the recorded data says, how the results were produced and where the evidence remains uncertain.
Readers can first examine the continental findings, then consult the methodology to understand how the analysis was carried out, and finally use the country profiles to see the local evidence. The reports do not present the countries as a league table.
Talence Research is publishing the work openly to support informed discussion, independent review and possible research or analytical collaboration. The reports are written for technical and non-technical readers, and the main limitations are stated alongside the findings.
Historical shortage events are observed outcomes under the project's fixed definition. The 2024 warnings are model-generated screening estimates. A warning identifies a case for closer examination; it does not prove that a shortage, famine or household-level food crisis occurred.
Research reports and country profiles
The continental report contains the main findings. The methodology explains how the data, historical event definition, model and warning process were developed. The country profiles provide the detailed evidence for each country.
Eight Staple Food Systems Across 43 African Countries
The main analytical report: food availability, production, trade, utilisation, historical contractions and 2024 model-generated screening evidence compared across the covered countries.
Development and Validation of Food-Supply Shortage Early-Warning Model Across 43 African Countries
The complete reasoning behind the data scope, event definition, feature construction, time-ordered development, validation, warning threshold, forward scoring, safeguards and limitations.
Forty-three country profiles
Country-level interpretation of staple importance, supply structure, utilisation, historical shortage events and forward screening signals using a consistent evidence framework.
Select a country
Each profile applies the same evidence framework locally and can be read independently. Profiles describe different food-system structures, histories and warning signals; they do not label one country as better or worse than another.
How to cite and interpret the research
Suggested project citation: Adelanwa, A. (2026). Food-Supply Shortage Early-Warning Evidence Across 43 African Countries. Talence Research. Available at: https://talenceresearch.com/africa-food-supply-shortage-early-warning/
This independent Talence Research project uses FAOSTAT Food Balance Sheet data. The analytical scope, shortage-event definition, historical comparisons, predictive model and early-warning estimates were developed by Talence Research. The project is not an FAO publication and does not imply FAO endorsement.
Readers citing a particular report or country profile should use the title, version and publication date shown on that publication.